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为什么他们都那么聪明却总是做出错误决策",[128,129,130],"p",{},"没开始在交易市场投资之前，每个人都觉得自己正常得要命……",[128,132,133,134,138],{},"开始做投资之后，用不了多久，绝大多数人都会变得垂头丧气，精神低落，情绪焦虑。为什么呢？绝大多数人都会绝望地发现，",[135,136,137],"strong",{},"过往的一切操作都是错的！"," 错个一两次就罢了，怎么可能一切的操作全都是错的呢？在这样的结果面前，没有人能处之泰然。",[128,140,141],{},"大涨了，发现自己早就卖了；大跌了，竟然出现在自己刚刚买入之后；某一天发现自己昨天逃顶了，却在几天之后痛苦地发现自己只不过是被震荡出局而已；某一天觉得自己抄底了，却在几天之后发现自己几天之前只不过是在接刀子而已；觉得自己手中的标的相对另外一个标的涨得太慢，所以就换车了，结果发现跟在高速公路上并线一样，反正就是自己所在的车道总是最慢……",[128,143,144],{},"有个股市的段子，能够清楚地描述那些 “韭菜” 们的感受：",[146,147,148],"blockquote",{},[128,149,150],{},"我一直想不明白：为什么我一个小小散户竟能左右整个市场？不管之前涨势多么疯狂，我一买入它必定下跌！哪怕已经破了 30 日支撑线，死叉叉了一次又一次，我一卖出它就上涨。我一空仓大盘疯涨，我一满仓大盘狂泻。手握百亿资金的庄家们竟死死盯着我手里这几万块钱不放。这到底是为啥？！",[128,152,153],{},"所以说，每个人在进行所谓的投资一段时间之后，就开始怀疑自己有病。",[128,155,156,157,160],{},"事实上，的确有病 —— 啥病？",[135,158,159],{},"愚昧病","。",[128,162,163,164,167,168,171],{},"“",[135,165,166],{},"愚笨","”和“",[135,169,170],{},"愚昧","”其实并不一样。",[128,173,174],{},"因为蠢笨是指智商差，而愚昧是指未开化、未受教育。原始人的智商并不差，梁启超的智商也不会差，但无论是原始人还是梁启超，甚至哪怕是爱因斯坦，若是真的有时光机可以让他们“穿越到未来”见到比特币，他们都一样，很难一下子弄明白搞清楚。这就是“愚笨”和“愚昧”的差别。",[128,176,177],{},"愚昧并不是因为笨，而是未开化，未经良好的教育开化，因此才造成的结果。这不是天生的，这只是有没有受过有效教育的差别而已。一个 8 岁的原始人穿越到今天，只要正常上学，他就算笨，也不会愚昧，到了高中，他再笨也能明白万有引力定律大抵上是怎么回事儿，他再笨也大致明白抛硬币为什么正反面的概率相同 —— 可能最终显得比哥白尼、祖冲之聪明多了！",[128,179,180],{},"所以，刚刚冲进交易市场的所谓投资者，理论上来讲就好像是原始人冲进了现代金融市场，他并不笨，但，他未经开化，他未经教育，他愚昧，所以，他很懵…… 在别的地方，懵就懵了，没啥大事，但在这里不一样，每一次的愚昧决策之后的懵，都是真金白银的损失，非常残酷。",[128,182,183],{},"对于这种境遇，绝大多数人的总结都是肤浅的。无非是，“哎呀，我不适合做这事情！”，“哎呀，我的运气太不好了！”，“唉！咱没那个命！”，“唉，看来咱这种人只适合做点实实在在的事儿……”",[128,185,186],{},"最后那句，绝对是为了自己的愚昧找借口。就好像一个丑姑娘从来没有收到过情书，但对于她自己从来没收到过情书的解释却是“咱不是那种人！” —— 说得好像收到情书的那些漂亮姑娘就怎样了似的……",[128,188,189],{},"所以，症状看到了，病根也找到了，那应该咋治呢？还是那句话：",[146,191,192],{},[128,193,194],{},[135,195,196],{},"何以解忧？唯有定投！",[128,198,199],{},"交易市场上从来都不缺聪明人，然而，虽然他们聪明，但他们不见得不愚昧，所以他们才屡屡吃亏。定投，不仅仅是一种投资策略，从另外一个层面上来看，定投是必须践行的行为，所以，理论上来看，定投是最好的投资教育，也是最好的投资教育实践 —— 所以，一个人是否聪明根本不重要，重要的是，在定投的持续践行过程中，最好的投资教育完成了，定投者会逐步摆脱愚昧走向文明。",[128,201,202],{},"你看，人们看到病症却不会治病的时候，总是可以拿出很多自己容易理解的解释。对于交易失败，他们的总结惊人地一致：唉，太贪了。好像“贪”这个字能够解释一切似的 —— 可真的是这样的吗？",[128,204,205],{},"常见的情况是这样，一个人买入了一个标的，例如，成本是 10 元。而后，当这个标的涨到 20 元的时候他没有卖，但过了一段时间，这个标的一路下跌，跌到他受不了的地步…… 无论是跌到了 12 元他出手卖了，还是跌到了 2 元他出手卖了，他都会后悔。然后，对自己的后悔做出的评价就是，唉！我太贪了，为什么 20 元的时候我不卖呢？！",[128,207,208],{},"在交易市场上，贪婪是普遍的，所有人都贪婪，否则你来这里干什么？那么，贪婪是不是罪呢？肯定不是。人们混淆概念的本领出奇地大，尤其是那种把两个截然相反的概念混为一谈的本领。赚了大钱的时候，他们把贪婪称为雄心，赔了大钱的时候，他们把贪婪称为罪过。那这种模棱两可的定义有什么用呢？除了让自己的脑子变乱之外。",[128,210,211],{},"其实，根源根本就不在所谓的“贪婪”上。根源原本应该非常清楚：",[146,213,214],{},[128,215,216],{},"这些所谓的投资者购买了他根本看不懂，所以他也根本无法判断合理价格的标的。",[128,218,219],{},"10 元的时候，他根本不知道这 10 元是合理还是不合理？20 元的时候，他还是不知道这 20 元是合理还是不合理？12 元的时候、2 元的时候，他依然不知道这个 12 元或者 2 元是否合理还是不合理？",[128,221,222,223,226],{},"他出手的依据是什么？其实只不过就是所谓的“跟着感觉走”。用行家的术语来说，就是“",[135,224,225],{},"随机漫步的傻瓜","”。因为随机漫步的结果就是原地不动 —— 当然，这类人的结局，还不如随机漫步的傻瓜呢，因为他们不会停留在原地，他们会慢慢沉沦到地狱。",[128,228,229],{},"为什么定投能治这个病呢？",[128,231,232,233,240],{},"你看，定投的意思是说，从一开始就锁定了一个几乎必然长期看涨的标的，并且定投的还是 ",[234,235,239],"a",{"href":236,"rel":237},"https:\u002F\u002Fb.watch",[238],"nofollow","BOX"," 这种稀释了机会成本的标的，并且押注的还不是某一个项目，而是整个新兴行业发展。进而，定投计划本身就决定了说，要长期持有多个周期……",[128,242,243],{},"也就是说，一开始的购买决定就是合理的，然后，不到几年之后，或者说，不经过一个长期的时间段以后，是没办法知道结果的。在此期间，所有的价格其实都是合理的，不管高低、不论涨跌 —— 直到最终结果闪现之前。",[128,245,246],{},"在这种前提下，购买的时候价格上下浮动几个百分点其实是没区别的。涨啊跌啊，其实跟自己完全没关系的，那只是市场上的众多随机漫步的傻瓜们发出的噪音而已。多年之后再看分晓……",{"title":248,"searchDepth":249,"depth":249,"links":250},"",2,[251],{"id":125,"depth":249,"text":126},null,"《定投改变命运》第 6 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