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—— 多半他们都会不到那时（输光）不罢休，所以从这个角度看，这是个必然事件……",[440,618,620],{"id":619},"是什么让你去冒险","是什么让你去冒险？",[312,622,623],{},[315,624,625,626,629,630,633],{},"赌博之所以让人上瘾，并不是因为它是高回报的游戏，而是因为，它能让你马上看到结果 —— 获得",[319,627,628],{},"及时反馈","。人们对于",[319,631,632],{},"未知","的来自本能恐惧，由此可见一斑。",[312,635,636],{},[315,637,638,639,642,643,646],{},"在危险发生前，如何向被教育者证明",[319,640,641],{},"那尚未发生的危险有多可怕","？在避险策略生效时，如何向已经躲开危险的人证明",[319,644,645],{},"并未发生的危险","究竟有多可怕？这是全世界所有安全专家共同面临的难题……",[312,648,649],{},[315,650,651,652,654],{},"喜欢冒险的人，归根结底都是",[319,653,371],{},"的人，他们不愿意深入分析，只想通过有限的特例来决定自己的行为。",[328,656,657],{"id":657},"凯利判据",[312,659,660],{},[315,661,662,664,665,668,669,673],{},[319,663,657],{},"(房地产和股票投资中并不适用)：对于",[319,666,667],{},"赢利有收益，输了就赔光","的赌局，有一个可以计算单次下注占比的公式：f=",[670,671,672],"span",{},"p(b+a)-a","\u002Fb(f是合理下注占比;a是单次下注金额;b是每次下注a之后，若是赢了能拿回的净利;p是赢得概率)。",[315,675,676,677,683,684,457],{},"理解数学公式可以尝试带入几个极端的情况，看看极端情况是什么样子，这样能方便我们理解，比如",[319,678,679,680,682],{},"凯利判据 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